Globalization remains at a historically high level despite escalating geopolitical tensions, rising U.S. tariffs, and unprecedented uncertainty about future trade policies, according to findings of the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026, released by DHL and New York University's Stern School of Business. 

The report tracks globalization on a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). The world's level of globalization was 25% in 2025, in line with the record high set in 2022. 

At the same time, the current globalization level underlines how far the world is from being fully globalized with the report noting that in many areas, international flows could expand further in the absence of policy constraints.

"Globalization is holding its ground – and that alone speaks volumes about its value. From poverty to climate change, the world's biggest challenges can only be solved through global thinking," said John Pearson, CEO DHL Express. "The DHL Global Connectedness Report shows that countries and companies are not retreating behind national borders."

U.S.-China trade continue to weaken but no split into rival blocs

The report found that U.S.-China tensions affect only small share of global flows — although the ties between the world's two largest economies continue to weaken.

The DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 said trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.6% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to 2.7% in 2024 and to only 2.0% during the first three quarters of 2025.

The U.S.-China share of international business investment is even smaller - less than 1% in 2025.

Even as the U.S. and China decouple, most countries continue to engage with their longstanding partners. The report found that over the past decade, only 4-6% of global goods trade, greenfield FDI, and cross-border M&A have shifted away from geopolitical rivals.

Of these flows, most have not moved to close allies but to countries with flexible geopolitical positions, such as India and Vietnam. Overall, the world economy remains far from a broad split into rival blocs.

"The politics and policy surrounding globalization are much more volatile than the actual flows between countries. Global trade patterns changed more in 2025 than they do in a typical year, but less than they did during other recent disruptions such as the early stages of the war in Ukraine," said Steven Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern's Center for the Future of Management.

He added that sound decision-making requires a calibrated view of how much global business ties are really changing. "The risks to globalization are real, but so is the resilience of global flows," Altman said.

Singapore tops most-globalized country list

Meanwhile, the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 shows Singapore ranked as the world’s most globalized country, while Europe remains the most globally connected region. 

Singapore again ranked as the world's most globalized nation, followed by Luxembourg and the Netherlands. It ranked first on the trade pillar (out of 180 countries) and second on the capital pillar (out of 158 countries). Particularly on trade flows, Singapore ranks first on ‘depth’ (up one place from 2019), with the largest international flows relative to its domestic economy. Additionally, the city-state stands out most for the breadth of its inward foreign domestic investment (FDI) stocks (ranked first worldwide).

"Asia Pacific continues to demonstrate extraordinary resilience and adaptability," said Ken Lee, CEO of DHL Express Asia Pacific. "The DHL Global Connectedness Report shows that countries across our region – from Singapore to Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and beyond – are deepening their global ties and attracting new trade flows."

"Even as global patterns shift, Asia remains a central engine of global trade. This is why we continue to invest in and enhance our Asia Pacific network, particularly in the eight fast-growing markets that DHL Group has identified. Our priority is to support businesses to stay connected and diversify their markets," Lee added.

Global trade grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the volatile Covid-19 period, according to the report, as U.S. importers accelerated shipments early in the year ahead of tariff increases.

U.S. imports later dropped below prior-year levels, but rising Chinese exports to non-U.S. markets helped sustain global trade volumes.

Trade in AI-related goods also surged as countries and companies raced to build AI infrastructure. Citing WTO figures, the report said AI-related products drove 42% of goods trade growth in the first three quarters of 2025.

Trade outlook: growth continues, even with higher tariffs

"Looking ahead, recent U.S. tariff increases are expected to modestly slow trade growth in 2026 – but not stop it," the DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026 said.

It noted that global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 2.6% per year through 2029, in line with the past decade.

"One reason trade can keep growing despite U.S. tariff hikes is that most trade does not involve the U.S.," the report said, adding that in 2025, 13% of imports went to the U.S., and 9% of exports came from the U.S. In addition, many countries are pursuing new trade agreements to secure access to alternative markets.

Published regularly since 2011, the DHL Global Connectedness Report provides reliable insights on globalization by analyzing 14 types of international trade, capital, information, and people flows. The 2026 edition is based on more than 9 million data points. It ranks the connectedness of 180 countries, accounting for 99.6% of global gross domestic product and 99.0% of the world’s population — offering the most comprehensive view of globalization available. 

The report was commissioned by DHL and authored by Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business.