The global air cargo market is expected to close 2025 with solid growth, defying headwinds from geopolitical tensions, a sluggish manufacturing sector, and shifting trade policies across major economies.
Industry analysts at Xeneta said the global air cargo market is on course for 3-4% growth in demand in 2025 based on current trading conditions, although after “unexpectedly high” volumes over the summer, September’s data showed signs of growth slowing heading into the final quarter of the year.
Traditionally the start of peak season for air cargo, September saw demand growth ease to 3% year-on-year—matching capacity growth—after stronger 5% year-on-year gains in both July and August.
“Over the previous two months we’ve seen how air cargo has gained from ‘piggybacking’ on global uncertainty, whether that’s frontloading supply chains or modal shift from ocean to air to move goods more quickly before tariffs took hold,” said Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta.
“September’s data is an early indication that this is lessening as some stability starts to return on major corridors and everything is less hectic on a global level,” he added.
A surge in Chinese ecommerce exports to Europe, driven by a strategic pivot away from the U.S. market, has significantly boosted air cargo volumes on the Asia–Europe corridor in recent months. Following the U.S. government’s decision to end ‘de minimis’ exemptions for imports valued under US$800 for most countries on August 29, Chinese ecommerce giants such as Temu, Shein, and Alibaba have redirected their cross-border logistics strategies toward European consumers. This shift has led to a measurable uptick in airfreight demand between Asia and Europe.
According to Aevean Consulting, Europe accounted for 27% of China’s ecommerce exports between May and July 2025, up six percentage points year-over-year, while the U.S. share dropped to just 15%, a 16-point decline.
van de Wouw said it is ‘astonishing’ how quickly China’s big e-commerce players have been able to pivot towards Europe to boost their growth.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, van de Wouw noted signs of cooling demand after a strong summer. “When we reported better-than-expected demand in July and August, our question was ‘how long will it last?’. In September, we started to see the market growth slowing, and we expect this to continue for the rest of the year.”
Based on current market fundamentals, he now expects 2025 to end with a 3-4% growth in air cargo demand.
“Q4 for airlines and freight forwarders will likely not be as good as hoped, but 2025 overall may not be as bad as they feared,” van de Wouw said.
“A year ago, at this time, we talked of a ‘peak season to be proud of’ and air cargo on its final approach to double-digit growth. One year down the line, the market looks very different.”
Glyn Hughes, director-general of The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA) said
Ken Lee, CEO for Asia Pacific, DHL Express, told Asia Cargo News that peak season growth is likely to be “more moderate” this year, reflecting a shift from the stronger surges seen in prior years.
“It is still difficult to provide accurate forecasts of peak season in 2025, due to the high level of uncertainty in the market. While we expect to see the usual seasonal uplift in volumes in Q4, we also anticipate that it will be more moderate compared to previous years,” he said.
“We can attribute this unpredictability to several factors, including the shifts in trade lanes from China to other markets in Asia Pacific and global volatility stemming from U.S. tariffs.”
He added that if consumer demand exceeds expectations in the fourth quarter, it could also trigger a surge in air freight and express delivery services—even as recent trends point to muted ocean freight volumes out of Asia, particularly to the U.S.
DHL Group has maintained its EBIT guidance of at least €6 billion for 2025. Lee noted that the company has identified life sciences and healthcare as well as new energy as the growth sectors, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America expected to offer significant growth potential.
Global air cargo demand rebounded with 4% growth in August, driven by strong outbound volumes from Asia Pacific, particularly on intra-Asia routes and from Europe to the region, according to DHL Global Forwarding’s September market update, which reflects broader industry trends beyond DHL’s own volumes.
“Technology demand has remained stable, while major ecommerce players are sourcing dedicated charters to ease pressure on commercial capacity, signaling sustained elevated demand,” Lee told Asia Cargo News. “However, the overall air cargo market still faces margin and reliability pressures from factors such as capacity constraints, congestion and potential demand shocks from tariffs, seasonal disruptions and a global economic slowdown.”
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts global air cargo volumes to reach 69 million tonnes in 2025—a modest 0.6% increase over 2024—reflecting cautious optimism amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty.
IATA revised its year-end outlook for 2025, lowering expectations from an earlier estimate of 72.5 million tonnes in response to slowing global GDP, rising protectionist trade policies, and tariff-related disruptions, particularly affecting U.S.–China flows.
Despite a modest outlook for 2025, the air cargo sector remains resilient, buoyed by realigned supply chains, ecommerce growth, and strategic fleet adjustments by carriers. Global volumes rose 11.3% in 2024, driven by post-pandemic recovery and surging online demand. However, IATA now forecasts a 4.7% decline in cargo revenues, totaling US$142 billion this year.
While demand is softening, especially in traditional corridors like the Transpacific, IATA noted that Asia–Europe lanes and regional hubs in Latin America and Africa continue to show pockets of strength. IATA expects capacity growth to trail demand slightly, but its overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic for the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, the outlook is increasingly bleak for exporters in Hong Kong and mainland China.
Garry Lau, chairman of the Hong Kong Association of Freight Forwarding and Logistics (HAFFA) said the outlook is “cautiously pessimistic,” with demand softening and consumer sentiment subdued by inflation and geopolitical tensions.
“Exporters in Hong Kong and mainland China continue to face a challenging environment. Trade confidence has weakened further, with tariff uncertainties and volatile global demand creating persistent headwinds,” Lau told Asia Cargo News.
“The landscape remains mixed, but signs point to a more sustained downturn in sentiment than previously anticipated,” he added.
Looking ahead, both air cargo and ocean shipping face a challenging outlook marked by cautious pessimism. Lau said air cargo demand remains narrowly concentrated in high-tech shipments, and general cargo volumes are notably weak.
“The overall picture is far from robust,” the HAFFA chief. “Looking toward 2026, in the near term, the broader cargo landscape remains sluggish, with limited signs of meaningful recovery.”
By Charlee C. Delavin
Asia Cargo News | Hong Kong