The United States' announcement of a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis marks the most significant change in Red Sea shipping conditions in months and could affect the return of container traffic to the route.

The agreement, which suggests Houthi forces will cease targeting U.S. vessels as long as the U.S. refrains from attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen, could pave the way for container carriers to resume passage through the Suez Canal.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, noted that while a rapid return of container traffic through the Red Sea remains unlikely, its eventual reopening could reshape global capacity dynamics.

"Carriers won't commit to the Suez route until there's clarity and confidence in safe passage," Levine said. "But once that happens, it will free up a significant amount of capacity, likely leading to downward pressure on rates."

Red Sea diversions have played a key role in absorbing excess container ship capacity amid volatile trade conditions.

Levine cautioned that the longer the pause, the more disruptive a sudden resurgence of volumes could be.

"If carriers are forced to shift capacity back to the Red Sea route too quickly, it could spark congestion and supply chain bottlenecks across multiple trade lanes," he said.

Meanwhile, transpacific rates have held steady as carriers adjust to declining shipments from China following tariff hikes earlier this year. However, even so, rates on these trades are around 30% lower than last year due to fleet growth and increased competition between the recently launched carrier alliances. 

Levine noted that lower volumes from China, coupled with shifting vessel capacity between major trade lanes, could further complicate efforts to stabilize global freight markets.

"The ongoing supply-demand imbalance, fleet growth, and shifting alliances among carriers mean rates will remain volatile," Levine said.

"The Red Sea situation is just another layer of uncertainty in an already unpredictable market."