The United States (US) and China have agreed to a 90-day suspension of additional tariffs, offering temporary relief to global supply chains.

The pause is expected to drive a surge in U.S. imports from China, as shippers seize the opportunity to move goods before a potential tariff hike in August.

Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, noted that the early peak season could put upward pressure on freight rates.

"Average transit time on the Transpacific trade is 22 days, so shippers will take the 90-day window of opportunity to ship as many goods as possible into the US, and this will put upward pressure on freight rates," Sand said.

He noted that carriers responded to falling volumes from China to the US by slashing container shipping capacity and redeploying it onto other trades, such as the Far East to Europe — and since it takes time to shift capacity back again, a revival in volumes from China to the US may mean shippers have to pay a little over the odds in the short term.

Spot rates for container shipments from China to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast have dropped 56% and 48%, respectively, since the start of 2025, but saw 18% and 12% increases in April following earlier tariff uncertainty.

Sand said that while Q3 is traditionally the peak season for ocean container shipping, that may arrive earlier in 2025 if there is now a rush to import goods into the US from China.

"Although the resurgence in demand may be slower for some low-margin goods due to the tariffs still in place," the Xeneta chief analyst added.

"In the longer term, it is likely freight rates will continue the downward trend seen in the market during Q1 prior to the 'Liberation Day' announcement by Trump," he added.

Similarly, Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, predicted a frontloading trend, where businesses rush to import goods before new tariffs take effect.

"Tariffs at the 20% level didn't stop shippers from frontloading in March and April – US ocean import volumes were up 11% YoY in that stretch — so the  current 'reduced' 30% level should see a restart of shippers pulling forward demand to beat a possible August tariff hike," he added.

Despite the pause, concerns remain about long-term volatility. Businesses still face a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, affecting lower-margin goods, and potential equipment shortages due to blank sailings and repositioned vessels.

"It must not be ignored, there is still a 30% tariff on imports from China to the US, and this will be prohibitive for some businesses with lower-margin goods, so there will still be an adverse impact on ocean container shipping demand," he said.

"It may also take shippers a little time to ramp up sourcing and manufacturing in China again if they took the foot off the gas following the 145% tariffs announced on April 9," he added.

Sand warned that while rates may rise due to increased demand, the downward trend from Q1 2025 could continue once the tariff pause ends.

"There will be relief over the easing of tariffs, but shippers cannot carry on as if nothing has happened because, if we have learned anything in the past few months, it is to expect the unexpected and further volatility," Sand said.

"The geopolitical risk on supply chains is ever present. Businesses do not want to be under the thumb of geo-politics any longer and will accelerate plans for diversification in supply chains so they are able to react much quicker and more decisively against future threats," he added.

Levine agreed that while rates will climb, they are unlikely to reach the US$8,000 per FEU highs seen last year due to an increasingly competitive and well-supplied market.

"Blank sailings and repositioning of smaller vessels have kept transpacific rates stable despite falling demand during the April pause. And a demand rebound – which could strain equipment availability and port operations in the near term from a surge of volumes and from vessels and containers now out of position – should start pushing rates back up soon."

He noted that rates will rise but not explode. "The volume rebound will probably signal the start of an early peak season that will keep rates elevated – but we might not see last year's US$8,000+/FEU highs due to a more competitive, well-supplied carrier landscape already keeping rates lower year on year," Levine added.

The tariff pause presents a brief window of opportunity, but global trade players remain cautious. With ongoing uncertainty in U.S.-China relations, businesses are bracing for further shifts in supply chain dynamics.