Ocean carriers are adjusting service networks and vessel rotations ahead of new U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) port call fees set to take effect Oct. 14, according to a recent analysis by Freightos.
The fees, targeting Chinese-owned, operated, or built vessels, have prompted operators to minimize exposure through blanked sailings and route shifts—moves that may have temporarily lifted transpacific rates despite softening demand.
The digital freight booking and analytics platform noted that carriers will attempt additional mid-month General Rate Increases (GRIs) for transpacific services this week, and though carriers are also increasing blanked sailings for the rest of September and October, demand trends have many observers anticipating rates will fall.
"Not everyone is convinced that the October 14th USTR port call fees on China-made vessels and operators will materialize, as the issue may be part of the ongoing US-China negotiations," said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.
"But carriers are making moves to minimize their exposure nonetheless. And these adjustments may have also put some temporary upward pressure on rates as vessels and services were being shuffled."
The Freightos analysis noted Asia-Europe container rates climbed 2% last week to US$2,585/FEU, while prices to the Mediterranean dipped 4% to US$2,833/FEU.
Rates on both lanes have fallen about US$200/FEU so far this week, signalling the coming end of this year's peak season as Golden Week nears. Despite volume increases compared to last year though, rates significantly lower than the US$5,000+/FEU prices seen last September reflect the effects of growing capacity on these lanes.
Steep US tariffs on imports from India are also leading to reports of falling India-US air cargo demand as some shippers pause or cancel orders.
Freightos Air Index South Asia - N. America rates have fallen 13% since July to US$4.18/kg, while prices to Europe have dipped only 2% to US$2.92/kg. Ex-China rates were stable overall last week with prices to the US easing 1% to US$5.24/kg, and rates to Europe ticking up 3% to US$3.64/kg.
Meanwhile, the latest round of China-US trade talks got underway in Madrid this week, with progress on a TikTok deal possibly a good sign for broader trade discussions. The Trump administration also extended 30% baseline tariffs on all imports from China for another 90-days a month ago to encourage further negotiations.
"Though the move has not led to a significant surge of transpacific container volumes since, it may have slowed the rate of declining demand," Levine of Freightos said.
He noted that frontloaded volumes that arrived ahead of tariff deadlines set for April and again for July and August have come at the expense of the typical strength of H2 US container imports relative to the first half of the year most years.
"The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import volume report estimates that H2 volumes will be down 10% year on year, with October imports 13% lower than a year ago and November and December volumes 20% lower," the Freightos head of research added.
Levine pointed out, however, that the latest estimate for September import volumes, however, are 16% higher than the NRF’s September projections made at the beginning of August – just before the 90-day China tariff extension announcement – suggesting some positive impact on imports from the sustained 30% US tariffs on China.
Transpacific container rates to the West Coast increased slightly last week to US$2,309/FEU, and are 34% higher than prices at the end of August. Rates to the East Coast climbed 4% last week to US$3,368/FEU and have increased 24% so far this month.
Prices climbed on early month GRIs and were supported by some increase in demand ahead of the approaching Golden Week holiday in China and an increase in blanked sailings – and may have been helped by some volume increase due to the 30% China tariff extension, Freightos said in its analysis.
