Air cargo tonnages from India to the U.S. have continued to fall since new tariffs of 50% came into force on August 27, despite a wider rebound in worldwide and U.S. volumes in the second full week of September.

Chargeable weight from India to the U.S. dropped by a further 8%, week on week (WoW), in week 37 (September 8 to 14) after falling by 12% and 11%, respectively, in the previous two weeks, according to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.

Those decreases follow a 28% spike in week 34 ahead of the imposition by the U.S. of new 50% 'reciprocal tariffs' from August 27 on goods imported from India.

The latest declines in week 37 take weekly tonnages from India to the U.S. to 14% below their average of the last three months.

In comparison, air cargo volumes from India to Europe rose steadily in weeks 34 to 36, taking them 2% higher than in week 36 last year, although they dipped slightly (1%, WoW) in week 37.

"India to U.S. air cargo tonnages had generally been up, year on year (YoY), in recent months, in part due to pressure on U.S. importers to seek alternatives to Chinese suppliers," WorldACD said in the new analysis.

"But in the first two weeks of September, under the new tariff regime, India to the U.S. air cargo tonnages have been down compared with the equivalent weeks last year, by 13% and 10%, YoY, respectively. Since around April, India to Europe tonnages have mostly been higher, YoY, although that gap with last year has narrowed somewhat in the last two months," the report added.

 [Source: WorldACD]

Within that Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origin region, Dubai has also seen a drop in tonnages to the U.S. in the last four weeks, with chargeable weight in week 37 down by more than one third (37%) compared with the average level in July and August.

That figure in week 37 may have been negatively affected by the Mawlid holiday, although Dubai to Europe tonnages have proven much more resilient in recent weeks than Dubai to the U.S. volumes, including in week 37, however still down 17%, YoY.

Global and regional perspectives

In a worldwide basis, global tonnages bounced back with 2% WoW growth in week 37, with declines from MESA origins (4%, WoW) more than offset by a 11% WoW rebound from North America origins – following the Labor Day public holiday in the U.S. on September 1 – and WoW increases from Asia Pacific origins (2%, WoW).

"Following the volatility seen for much of this year, China and Hong Kong to  U.S. markets have settled down in recent weeks," WorldACD said.

China and Hong Kong to U.S. tonnages are around 8% below their equivalent level this time last year, with average spot rates of US$4.58 per kilo being around 14% below last year's equivalent levels.

Meanwhile, during the same period, tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe have been consistently higher, by around 8%, with average spot rates of US$4.21 per kilo, around 4% below last year's levels.