Market conditions and freight rates could weaken further during the rest of 2025, according to a new analysis by BIMCO, one of the largest international shipping associations representing shipowners.

Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, said current demand is also bolstered by trade lanes not bound for the United States.

"On the strength of demand in trade lanes not bound for the U.S., we have increased our ship demand growth forecast for 2025 to 4.5-5.5% while maintaining it at 2.5-3.5% for 2026," he said.

"We now expect a balanced supply/demand development in 2026, while expecting average market conditions in 2025 to be worse than in 2024.

With few exceptions, Rasmussen noted that the U.S. tariff increases previously presented by President Donald Trump are now fully implemented. Additionally, several commodity-specific tariff increases have been implemented.

Negative import volume growth in the US

Due to weaker U.S. import volumes, the BIMCO analysis found that volumes to North America have seen negative year-on-year growth since April.

"We expect that market conditions could be weaker rest-of-year and forecast that North America import volumes will be contract 2% in 2025 while returning to growth in 2026."

Rasmussen noted that cargo volume growth into most regions outside of North America has so far proven resilient. "We expect that global volumes will grow 2.5-3.5% in both 2025 and 2026," he said.

In 2025, we expect ship demand to grow faster than cargo volumes, as long-haul trades are expanding at a rate faster than the average. BIMCO said that it is particularly true for Asian exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, South & Central America, and Europe & Mediterranean regions.

"However, it must be remembered that demand remains elevated due to Cape of Good Hope routings." Suez Canal transits remain 90% lower than before the Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea.

"Should conditions change and ships fully return to normal routings, we expect ship demand to end 10% lower than our forecast," the analysis said.

BIMCO has also increased its supply growth estimate to 7.3% for 2025 while lowering it to 3.1% for 2026.

It noted that slow recycling activity has led us to increase the underlying fleet growth estimate, while a slight increase in sailing speeds also increases the 2025 supply estimate. The faster growth in 2025 has, conversely, caused the relative growth rate in 2026 to end lower than previously forecast.

"We expect that market conditions and freight rates could weaken further during the rest of 2025," Rasmussen said. "So far, time charter rates and second-hand ship prices have been remarkably unaffected by the lower freight rates, but we expect that could change starting in the fourth quarter of 2025."

"As we forecast stable supply/demand growth, we expect that freight rates could stabilise in 2026," the BIMCO chief shipping analyst added.