Global trade surged by over US$500 billion in the first half of 2025, despite volatility and policy shifts, with momentum accelerating into the third quarter.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in a new report that growth in Q2 was driven primarily by developing economies, supported by South– South trade.
Weak trade performance by the United States pulled down the global average.
"Overall, trade growth remained positive in the first half of 2025, despite rising trade policy uncertainty, persistent geopolitical tensions, and a challenging global economic environment," UNCTAD said.
During this period, the report noted that global trade increased by by more than half a trillion dollars compared with the second half of 2024, although growth patterns were volatile.
During Q2 2025, both goods and services trade showed consistent expansion, largely supported by the strong performance of developing economies, while trade of developed economies was subdued because of a significant drop in United States imports.
[Source: UNCTAD]
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continues to drive global trade growth, led by electronics. Hybrid and electric vehicles are driving automotive trade growth.
"Looking ahead to the rest of 2025, global trade is expected to remain resilient and reach record highs by the end of the year," UNCTAD said.
"Despite turbulence from shifting United States trade policy, global trade dynamics have so far shown limited disruption, with developing economies maintaining strong commitment to trade as a foundation for growth."
Nonetheless, the UN body that helps developing countries participate more fairly and effectively in the global economy, pointed out that "uncertainty over United States policy remains a notable risk."
"Forward-looking indicators send mixed signals," the report said, adding that China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stayed below 50 in August, signaling contraction, while the United States PMI remained well above 50, pointing to expansion.
Shipping measures also diverged, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declining but the Baltic Dry Index rising.
"Overall, trade momentum should continue, but growth patterns will vary regionally," UNCTAD added. "The negative impact of trade policy uncertainty has remained relatively contained, keeping the overall outlook for global trade in 2025 strongly positive."
