US inventory levels remained stable through October 2025 even as container import volumes continued to decline, according to the latest US Census Bureau data, analysed by Sea‑Intelligence, noting that the drop in the inventory‑to‑sales ratio reflects sales growth outpacing inventory growth, rather than a reduction in stock levels.

Sea-Intelligence noted that data tracking the past eight years reveals that inventories are not being reduced, but instead remain on a gradual upward trajectory. While the build-up has nearly stalled, the figures still point to a lack of decline.

Sales across sectors are expanding at a faster rate than inventories, with year-on-year growth of roughly 4%. This stands in sharp contrast to US containerised imports, which have contracted by around 6% year-on-year. Ordinarily, such a gap would be expected to trigger a draw-down of inventories, yet the data suggests otherwise.

Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, described the situation as unusual.

"Inventories are not being reduced but are instead gradually increasing," he said. "While the inventory build-up is slowing down – almost to the point of stalling – it is still not declining."

Murphy noted the discrepancy between sales and imports, adding: "If US sales are showing healthy growth of around 4% Y/Y, while US containerised imports are contracting at around -6% Y/Y, we should expect the difference to be made up by a draw-down of US inventories, but that is not the case."

Analysts suggest timing differences between data sources may partly explain the anomaly, with upcoming inventory reports potentially revealing sharper contractions.

Other factors could also be influencing the numbers. Imports may be arriving through channels outside of container shipping, or companies may be shifting trading terms to recognize ownership of goods earlier than usual.

The analysis said such changes would inflate financial inventory measures without a corresponding rise in physical container flows.

For now, Murphy said, the divergence remains unresolved. "All we can say is that this discrepancy does indeed look peculiar."