WorldACD reports that U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — and Tehran's swift retaliation — have had an immediate and profound impact on airfreight flows.
Iran's attacks on Gulf hubs forced the closure of airports and grounded the fleets of airlines based in the region, which stranded almost half of the capacity with origin Middle East & South Asia last weekend, and about 15% of global air cargo capacity.
The air cargo market data provider noted that the situation remains fluid with affected airports resuming operations by the mid of last week and the fleets of Gulf-based carriers ramping up their flights again.
Forwarders have resorted to charters out of Asia Pacific amid warnings that backlogs of airfreight to Europe and the U.S. could become an issue by the weekend.
As the attacks on Iran began on February 28, data compiled by WorldACD for the week ending March 1 capture only the immediate impact of the first two days of the conflict.
"What is clear is that air cargo flows suffered immediate disruption," WorldACD said.
It noted that Tte significance of the Middle East & South Asia region for the worldwide air cargo flows is profound and showed that 21% of global air cargo traffic is directly impacted.
The latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data show pronounced slumps in traffic in immediate response to the outbreak of hostilities, with the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) showing the severest impact.
Compared to the same day of the week of the preceding week (week 8), overall airfreight exports from the region fell 27% on February 28, accelerating to 56% the following day for a combined drop of 40%.
The Levant and Gulf area registered a week-on-week (WoW) slump of over 70% on March 1.
[Source: WorldACD]
Out of South Asia chargeable weight to Europe and the U.S. fell 57% and 33% respectively for an overall decline of almost 50% on March 1, compared to the previous Sunday (February 22). Traffic out of China and Northeast Asia to Europe turned south again (-4%) last weekend, after continuous improvement over the first five days of the week, while an 8% decline to Europe on the weekend slowed growth out of Southeast Asia.
Post Lunar New Year rebound drives WoW expansion
Week 9 showed mixed signals, with steady activity early on and late‑week disruption from the Middle East conflict. Post–Lunar New Year demand lifted Asia Pacific tonnages 13% week over week, pushing global volumes up 2%.
Strong server and semiconductor demand drove sharp increases from Taiwan (+66%) and South Korea (+54%) to the U.S., while China and Japan declined. Rates from Asia Pacific to the U.S. rose 3% WoW but remained 5% lower YoY, and spot rates to Europe slipped 3%.
Pricing fell in most regions, led by an 8% drop in Asia Pacific, contributing to a 3% global WoW decline. Capacity tightened for a second week, down 2% after a 7% fall in Week 8, and was flat YoY overall as gains in Africa, CSA, and Europe were offset by reductions in Asia Pacific and MESA.
Another month of expansion
After an 8% year‑on‑year rise in January, the industry posted a 7% increase in chargeable weight for February.
WorldACD noted that all regions except Europe (‑3%) saw growth, led by Asia Pacific (+14%) and MESA (+12%). Pricing was more mixed: rates climbed out of Europe (+9%), Asia Pacific (+6%), and Africa (+7%), but fell from MESA (‑8%), North America (‑3%), and CSA (‑2%).
"The hostilities in the Middle East have multiplied the uncertainty looming over global trade, from the prospect of prolonged warfare causing an economic downturn to severe restrictions of flight corridors linking Asia and Europe and galloping oil prices fueling inflation and airline surcharges," WorldACD said.
"As we have seen this week, the air cargo industry will step up to the plate and once more show its resilience to keep global trade moving."
