In the next 20 years, Airbus said it forecasts demand for some 2,440 freighters, of which 880 will be new-build to support the expected growth from e-commerce.

"Cargo demand, boosted by e-commerce, is driven by an expected growth in express freight of 4.7% per year and a general cargo (representing about 75% of the market) growth of 2.7%," it said.

In a statement, the European planemaker noted that in general as air transport progressively shift from fleet growth to the accelerated retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, there will also be a need for some 39,000 new-build passenger and freighter aircraft, 15,250 of these for replacement.

"As economies and air transport mature, we see demand increasingly driven by replacement rather than growth. Replacement being today’s most significant driver for decarbonisation. The world is expecting more sustainable flying and this will be made possible in the short-term by the introduction of most modern airplanes," said Christian Scherer, chief commercial officer and Head of Airbus International.

SAF-powered planes

"Powering these new, efficient aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is the next big lever. We pride ourselves that all our aircraft — the A220, A320neo Family, the A330neo and the A350 — are already certified to fly with a blend of 50% SAF, set to rise to 100% by 2030 —  before making ZEROe our next reality from 2035 onwards,” Scherer added.

Airbus noted that by 2040 the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will be of the latest generation, up from some 13% today, considerably improving the CO2 efficiency of the world’s commercial aircraft fleets.

While having lost nearly two years of growth over the COVID period, the planemaker noted that passenger traffic has demonstrated its resilience and is set to reconnect to an annual growth of 3.9% per year, driven by expanding economies and commerce around the globe including tourism.

It said the fastest traffic growth will be in Asia with domestic China becoming the largest market.

The demand for new aircraft will include around 29,700 Small aircraft like the A220 and A320 Families, as well as about 5,300 in the Medium aircraft category such as the A321XLR and the A330neo.

In the Large segment, covered by the A350, a need for some 4,000 deliveries  is expected by 2040, Airbus added.