All regions are expected to experience air cargo growth in 2024, according to the latest analysis from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The trade association of the world's airlines noted that the Middle East is set for the biggest rise at 12.3%, while Africa will see a more modest 1.5% growth.

On average, air cargo is forecast to grow 4.5%.

"Yields will likely decline in 2024, but they will still be above their 2019 levels," said Rachel Yuting Fan, IATA Sustainability and Economics.

"Cargo revenue will also be about 11% above 2019 and comprise 12% of total industry revenue. In other words, 2024 will see sustained revenue growth and the sector will outperform pre-pandemic levels," she added.

The relevant economic markers are also positive with 3.5% growth in global trade projected for 2024.

The IATA analysis said broadly belly capacity is back and will carry the majority of air cargo while preighters have disappeared entirely.

Meanwhile, dedicated freighters will maintain their usual share of the market.

"Other beneficial factors include the continued growth of e-commerce, the reduction in delivery times, and the robust performance of high-value specialized products, such as pharmaceuticals, which seem resilient to the industry’s usual volatility," IATA said.

Possible downsides include China's supply chain and currency fluctuations.

Overall, cargo revenues are expected to fall to US$111 billion in 2024, and yields will remain high by historical standards despite falling in 2023 and 2024.

Yield progression has been extraordinary in recent years (-8.2% in 2019, +54.7% in 2020, +25.9% in 2021, +7% in 2022, -32.2% in 2023 ).

Cargo volumes are expected to reach 61 million tonnes in 2024.

IATA said digitalization and sustainability will continue to be critical to air cargo's progress — with the problem being the varied data in air cargo, which covers different functions, stakeholders, and formats. This makes any streamlining attempts extremely complex.

"Digitalization will give air cargo not only the ability to serve e-commerce growth and smooth capacity fluctuations but also provide the analytics to boost sustainability."

Air cargo in a "better place" than 2019

Brendan Sullivan, head of cargo at IATA, said the air cargo market is better positioned compared to the pre-pandemic level.